2024 Presidential Election · National · Archive
National
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×2106 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS47.7%
MODEL — TRUMP48.5%
MODEL MARGINTrump+0.8
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+1.5
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
47.7%
Actual: 48.3% · Off by 0.6pts
Trump (Model)
48.5%
Actual: 49.8% · Off by 1.3pts
Model Margin
Trump+0.8
Actual: Trump+1.5 · Miss: 0.7pts
Polls Included
106
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 National Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
47.7% → 48.3%
Off by 0.6 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
48.5% → 49.8%
Off by 1.3 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+0.8 → Trump+1.5
Avg candidate miss: 1.0pts · Margin miss: 0.7pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I&I/TIPP | 2024-11-04 | 1,863 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+0.3 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 2,703 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
I&I/TIPP | 2024-11-03 | 1,411 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+0.5 |
I&I/TIPP | 2024-11-02 | 1,305 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Forbes/HarrisX | 2024-11-02 | 3,759 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
NBC News | 2024-11-02 | 1,000 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 47% | Trump+1.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 1,527 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 2,463 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
ABC News/Ipsos | 2024-11-01 | 2,267 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
I&I/TIPP | 2024-10-31 | 1,249 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+0.7 |
Yahoo News | 2024-10-31 | 1,074 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 3,490 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
I&I/TIPP | 2024-10-30 | 1,265 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Data for ProgressD | 2024-10-30 | 908 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 48% | Harris+2.0 |
Echelon Insights | 2024-10-30 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-30 | 1,738 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-10-30 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 49% | EVEN |
Economist/YouGov | 2024-10-29 | 1,310 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Daily Mail | 2024-10-29 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 49% | Trump+3.0 |
Forbes/HarrisX | 2024-10-29 | 3,718 | RV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 3,032 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
FOX News | 2024-10-28 | 1,057 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
CNN | 2024-10-23 | 1,704 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-23 | 2,516 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 47% | Trump+1.0 |
Economist/YouGov | 2024-10-22 | 1,293 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
ABC News/Ipsos | 2024-10-22 | 1,913 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 47% | Harris+4.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-22 | 1,500 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 47% | Trump+2.0 |
Forbes/HarrisX | 2024-10-21 | 1,244 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 866 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-10-18 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 44% | Harris+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 4,180 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 51% | Trump+3.0 |
Big Data Poll | 2024-10-16 | 1,200 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 52% | Trump+4.0 |
Economist/YouGov | 2024-10-15 | 1,314 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
Harvard/Harris | 2024-10-13 | 3,145 | RV | ×1.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
Harvard-Harris | 2024-10-13 | 2,596 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
Marquette | 2024-10-10 | 699 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 41% | Harris+3.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-10 | 857 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-10-09 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
AmGreatness/TIPP | 2024-10-09 | 803 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
ABC News/Ipsos | 2024-10-08 | 1,714 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 48% | Harris+2.0 |
NBC News | 2024-10-08 | 1,000 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 47% | Trump+1.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Economist/YouGov | 2024-10-07 | 1,230 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-07 | 1,412 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-06 | 3,385 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
Pew Research | 2024-10-06 | 4,025 | RV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
I&I/TIPP | 2024-10-04 | 997 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
Yahoo News | 2024-10-04 | 1,033 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Economist/YouGov | 2024-10-01 | 1,261 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 408 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 474 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 993 | RV | ×1.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-25 | 1,775 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 51% | Trump+3.0 |
Economist/YouGov | 2024-09-24 | 1,236 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Fabrizio Ward/AnzaloneGOLD | 2024-09-24 | 600 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
FOX News | 2024-09-24 | 787 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
CNN | 2024-09-22 | 2,074 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-22 | 1,728 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-09-19 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
Economist/YouGov | 2024-09-17 | 1,445 | RV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
NBC News | 2024-09-17 | 1,000 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 41% | Harris+6.0 |
GWU/HarrisX | 2024-09-16 | 1,505 | RV | ×1.00 | 50% | 45% | Harris+5.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-09-16 | 2,437 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-16 | 1,331 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 45% | Harris+6.0 |
Washington PostGOLD | 2024-09-16 | 1,003 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Franklin & Marshall | 2024-09-15 | 890 | RV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-09-14 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
TIPP | 2024-09-13 | 1,721 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 41% | Harris+4.0 |
Yahoo News | 2024-09-13 | 1,090 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
Forbes/HarrisX | 2024-09-13 | 3,018 | RV | ×1.00 | 50% | 47% | Harris+3.0 |
ABC News/Ipsos | 2024-09-13 | 2,772 | RV | ×1.00 | 50% | 46% | Harris+4.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-12 | 1,775 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 51% | Trump+3.6 |
Harvard/Harris | 2024-09-05 | 2,358 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
CNN | 2024-08-29 | 789 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 803 | RV | ×1.00 | 51% | 45% | Harris+6.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-08-17 | 1,312 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Outward Intelligence | 2024-08-15 | 1,858 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 43% | Harris+6.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-08-14 | 1,000 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 44% | Harris+4.0 |
EmersonGOLD | 2024-08-14 | 1,000 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
The Economist/YouGov | 2024-08-13 | 1,407 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
Fox News | 2024-08-12 | 1,105 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 45% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-08-12 | 1,738 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
JL Partners | 2024-08-11 | 1,001 | LV | ×1.00 | 41% | 43% | Trump+2.0 |
Franklin & Marshall | 2024-08-11 | 920 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 43% | Harris+3.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-08 | 693 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
The Economist/YouGov | 2024-08-06 | 1,410 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 43% | Harris+2.0 |
NPR/PBS News/Marist College | 2024-08-04 | 1,513 | RV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
CBS News/YouGov | 2024-08-02 | 3,102 | RV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-08-02 | 411 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
The Economist/YouGov | 2024-07-30 | 1,430 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
McLaughlin & Associates | 2024-07-29 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 41% | 42% | Trump+1.0 |
Harvard/Harris | 2024-07-28 | 2,196 | RV | ×1.00 | 42% | 45% | Trump+3.0 |
Leger | 2024-07-28 | 786 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 41% | Harris+7.0 |
SusquehannaGOLD | 2024-07-28 | 600 | LV | ×2.00 | 43% | 47% | Trump+4.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 804 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 46% | Trump+2.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-07-25 | 1,000 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 44% | Harris+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-07-25 | 1,980 | RV | ×2.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+1.6 |
Big Village | 2024-07-24 | 1,492 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 44% | Trump+1.6 |
New York Times/Siena College | 2024-07-24 | 1,000 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 43% | Harris+1.0 |
FOX News | 2024-07-24 | 1,034 | RV | ×1.00 | 43% | 45% | Trump+2.0 |
The Economist/YouGov | 2024-07-23 | 1,605 | RV | ×1.00 | 41% | 44% | Trump+3.0 |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-07-23 | 850 | RV | ×2.00 | 44% | 46% | Trump+2.0 |
NPR/PBS | 2024-07-22 | 1,309 | A | ×1.00 | 42% | 42% | EVEN |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-07-12 | 872 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 43% | Trump+1.0 |
The Economist/YouGov | 2024-07-09 | 1,443 | RV | ×1.00 | 38% | 42% | Trump+4.0 |
Forbes/HarrisX | 2024-06-30 | 1,500 | RV | ×1.00 | 38% | 43% | Trump+5.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE