JD VanceRepublican · 47th Vice President
2028 Presidential RaceVSGeneral Election · Nationwide
Gavin NewsomDemocrat · Governor of California
2028 Presidential Election · General Election Polling
Vance vs. Newsom
Poll Average
Daily weighted average across all included polls — recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, and PSI Gold Standard upweighting.
LIVE TRACKING★ GOLD STANDARD ×2 WEIGHT17 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
VANCE (R)46.1%
NEWSOM (D)51.6%
MARGIND+5.5
CURRENT AVERAGES
Vance (R)
46.1%
Daily weighted avg
Newsom (D)
51.6%
Daily weighted avg
Margin
D+5.5
Newsom − Vance
Polls
17
Included in model
TRENDLINE
2028 Vance vs. Newsom polling average
JD Vance & Gavin Newsom trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
JD Vance (R)Gavin Newsom (D)
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | VANCE (R) | NEWSOM (D) | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-02-28 | 250 | LV | ×1.00 | 41.0% | 46.0% | D+5.0 |
The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-02-28 | 316 | RV | ×1.00 | 43.0% | 38.0% | R+5.0 |
Big Data PollGOLD | 2026-02-18 | 1,805(eff 7,220) | LV | ×2.00 | 46.8% | 53.2% | D+6.4 |
YouGov / Yahoo | 2026-02-12 | 511 | LV | ×1.00 | 43.0% | 49.0% | D+6.0 |
Zogby | 2026-01-07 | 891 | LV | ×1.00 | 44.6% | 41.0% | R+3.6 |
The Argument/Verasight | 2025-11-17 | 1,508 | RV | ×1.00 | 46.4% | 53.6% | D+7.2 |
Morning Consult | 2025-11-16 | 2,201 | RV | ×1.00 | 42.0% | 41.0% | R+1.0 |
Overton Insights | 2025-10-29 | 1,200 | RV | ×1.00 | 43.0% | 46.0% | D+3.0 |
YouGov / UMass Lowell | 2025-10-20 | 1,000 | A | ×1.00 | 32.0% | 36.0% | D+4.0 |
Echelon Insights | 2025-10-20 | 1,010 | LV | ×1.00 | 46.0% | 47.0% | D+1.0 |
EmersonGOLD | 2025-10-14 | 1,000(eff 4,000) | RV | ×2.00 | 45.5% | 44.9% | R+0.6 |
YouGov / Yahoo | 2025-09-02 | 1,690 | A | ×1.00 | 41.0% | 49.0% | D+8.0 |
Leger360 | 2025-08-31 | 849 | A | ×1.00 | 46.0% | 47.0% | D+1.0 |
EmersonGOLD | 2025-08-26 | 1,000(eff 4,000) | LV | ×2.00 | 44.4% | 43.5% | R+0.9 |
SoCal Strategies | 2025-08-18 | 700 | A | ×1.00 | 37.0% | 39.0% | D+2.0 |
EmersonGOLD | 2025-07-22 | 1,400(eff 5,600) | RV | ×2.00 | 45.3% | 42.1% | R+3.2 |
SoCal Strategies | 2024-12-23 | 656 | A | ×1.00 | 37.0% | 34.0% | R+3.0 |