2024 Presidential Election · Arizona · Archive
Arizona
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×242 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS45.8%
MODEL — TRUMP50.0%
MODEL MARGINTrump+4.2
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+5.5
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
45.8%
Actual: 46.7% · Off by 0.9pts
Trump (Model)
50.0%
Actual: 52.2% · Off by 2.2pts
Model Margin
Trump+4.2
Actual: Trump+5.5 · Miss: 1.3pts
Polls Included
42
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Arizona Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
45.8% → 46.7%
Off by 0.9 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
50.0% → 52.2%
Off by 2.2 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+4.2 → Trump+5.5
Avg candidate miss: 1.6pts · Margin miss: 1.3pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | 2024-11-05 | 1,468 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 49% | Trump+3.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 875 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 1,025 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 48% | Trump+4.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 967 | LV | ×2.00 | 45% | 52% | Trump+7.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-31 | 856 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 652 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 1,005 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
Data for ProgressD | 2024-10-30 | 1,079 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Noble Predictive Insights | 2024-10-30 | 775 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 1,458 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
Mitchell Research | 2024-10-28 | 610 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 50% | Trump+2.0 |
Data Orbital | 2024-10-28 | 550 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 50% | Trump+8.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-27 | 901 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-10-26 | 781 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
J.L. Partners | 2024-10-26 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-22 | 710 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 861 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-18 | 691 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 49% | Trump+3.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 1,440 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 49% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-14 | 1,141 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-10 | 808 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 50% | Trump+5.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 45% | Harris+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-02 | 555 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Fabrizio/Anzalone | 2024-10-01 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 409 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 47% | Harris+3.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 926 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-25 | 946 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 50% | Trump+1.0 |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-09-24 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 48% | Trump+6.0 |
FOX News | 2024-09-24 | 764 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-09-21 | 713 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 48% | Trump+5.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-19 | 789 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-09 | 765 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 47% | Trump+1.0 |
TIPP | 2024-09-05 | 949 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-08-29 | 682 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 49% | Trump+5.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-28 | 530 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 46% | Trump+1.0 |
FOX News | 2024-08-26 | 1,014 | RV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 776 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-08-17 | 1,187 | LV | ×2.00 | 44% | 45% | Trump+1.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-15 | 677 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 43% | Harris+4.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 804 | RV | ×1.00 | 48% | 44% | Harris+4.0 |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-07-23 | 800 | RV | ×2.00 | 40% | 48% | Trump+8.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE