2024 Presidential Election · Georgia · Archive
Georgia
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×248 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS47.2%
MODEL — TRUMP48.3%
MODEL MARGINTrump+1.1
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+2.2
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
47.2%
Actual: 48.5% · Off by 1.3pts
Trump (Model)
48.3%
Actual: 50.7% · Off by 2.4pts
Model Margin
Trump+1.1
Actual: Trump+2.2 · Miss: 1.1pts
Polls Included
48
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Georgia Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
47.2% → 48.5%
Off by 1.3 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
48.3% → 50.7%
Off by 2.4 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+1.1 → Trump+2.2
Avg candidate miss: 1.9pts · Margin miss: 1.1pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | 2024-11-05 | 1,659 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 1,112 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 1,004 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 1,174 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-31 | 939 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 1,779 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
East Carolina University | 2024-10-31 | 902 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 50% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 1,212 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Data for ProgressD | 2024-10-30 | 972 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 1,429 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-10-28 | 732 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-27 | 1,112 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
The Citadel | 2024-10-25 | 1,126 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-22 | 1,168 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 855 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-18 | 1,019 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 1,411 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 50% | Trump+2.0 |
U. Georgia SPIA | 2024-10-16 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 47% | Trump+4.0 |
Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 2024-10-16 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 47% | Trump+4.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-14 | 637 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-14 | 1,328 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 52% | Trump+7.0 |
East Carolina University | 2024-10-14 | 701 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 49% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-09 | 608 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-02 | 3,783 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 47% | Trump+1.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-29 | 942 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 50% | Trump+6.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 411 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 913 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-25 | 1,200 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 49% | EVEN |
FOX News | 2024-09-24 | 707 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 48% | Harris+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-09-21 | 682 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 47% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-19 | 1,043 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
TIPP | 2024-09-18 | 835 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
U. Georgia SPIA | 2024-09-15 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 47% | Trump+3.0 |
Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 2024-09-15 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 47% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-09 | 562 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-08 | 969 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 49% | Trump+4.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-08-29 | 617 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-28 | 699 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 44% | Trump+2.0 |
FOX News | 2024-08-26 | 1,014 | RV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 737 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-14 | 661 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-08-02 | 405 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
Fabrizio/Anzalone | 2024-07-31 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 799 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 45% | EVEN |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-07-23 | 800 | RV | ×2.00 | 46% | 43% | Harris+3.0 |
Landmark Communications | 2024-07-22 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE