2024 Presidential Election · Michigan · Archive
Michigan
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×256 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS47.6%
MODEL — TRUMP47.8%
MODEL MARGINTrump+0.2
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+1.4
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
47.6%
Actual: 48.3% · Off by 0.7pts
Trump (Model)
47.8%
Actual: 49.7% · Off by 1.9pts
Model Margin
Trump+0.2
Actual: Trump+1.4 · Miss: 1.2pts
Polls Included
56
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Michigan Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
47.6% → 48.3%
Off by 0.7 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
47.8% → 49.7%
Off by 1.9 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+0.2 → Trump+1.4
Avg candidate miss: 1.3pts · Margin miss: 1.2pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 1,113 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 50% | Trump+2.0 |
Mitchell Research | 2024-11-02 | 585 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 998 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 45% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 1,198 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-31 | 942 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 1,731 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 1,136 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Echelon Insights | 2024-10-30 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 938 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-10-28 | 726 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
FOX News | 2024-10-28 | 988 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-27 | 728 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
Detroit Free Press | 2024-10-27 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 48% | Trump+3.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-10-24 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
Detroit News/WDIV-TV | 2024-10-24 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-22 | 1,115 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-21 | 1,136 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 705 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-18 | 1,008 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 1,529 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-14 | 682 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Mitchell Research | 2024-10-14 | 589 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Big Data Poll | 2024-10-14 | 904 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 51% | Trump+1.0 |
MRG | 2024-10-11 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 44% | Harris+1.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 45% | Harris+2.0 |
Fabrizio/Anzalone | 2024-10-08 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-07 | 1,007 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
Detroit News/WDIV-TV | 2024-10-04 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-02 | 839 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
MIRS/MI News Source | 2024-09-30 | 709 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 404 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-09-26 | 688 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 416 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 46% | Harris+4.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-25 | 918 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
Remington Research | 2024-09-20 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-19 | 993 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-09-19 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-09-19 | 650 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-16 | 905 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 45% | Harris+5.0 |
MIRS/MI News Source | 2024-09-11 | 580 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 46% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-09 | 556 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-08-29 | 708 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
Detroit News/WDIV-TV | 2024-08-29 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 45% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-28 | 1,071 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
EPIC/MRA | 2024-08-26 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 651 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
AmGreatness/TIPP | 2024-08-22 | 741 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-08-17 | 1,093 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
Fabrizio/Anzalone | 2024-08-11 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 43% | Harris+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-08 | 619 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-08-02 | 406 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 706 | RV | ×1.00 | 51% | 39% | Harris+12.0 |
Detroit News/WDIV-TV | 2024-07-24 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 41% | Harris+1.0 |
FOX News | 2024-07-24 | 1,012 | RV | ×1.00 | 43% | 45% | Trump+2.0 |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-07-23 | 800 | RV | ×2.00 | 44% | 44% | EVEN |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE