2024 Presidential Election · Minnesota · Archive
Minnesota
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×217 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS50.0%
MODEL — TRUMP46.3%
MODEL MARGINHarris+3.7
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+-4.3
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
50.0%
Actual: 51.0% · Off by 1.0pts
Trump (Model)
46.3%
Actual: 46.7% · Off by 0.4pts
Model Margin
Harris+3.7
Actual: Harris+4.3 · Miss: 0.6pts
Polls Included
17
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Minnesota Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
50.0% → 51.0%
Off by 1.0 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
46.3% → 46.7%
Off by 0.4 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Harris+3.7 → Harris+4.3
Avg candidate miss: 0.7pts · Margin miss: 0.6pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 2,065 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Research Co. | 2024-11-03 | 450 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 44% | Harris+7.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-11-01 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 52% | 48% | Harris+4.0 |
SurveyUSA | 2024-10-28 | 728 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 43% | Harris+8.0 |
Rasmussen Reports (R)GOLD | 2024-10-26 | 959 | LV | ×2.00 | 50% | 47% | Harris+3.0 |
CES/YouGov | 2024-10-25 | 1,275 | LV | ×1.00 | 53% | 43% | Harris+10.0 |
Embold Research/MinnPost | 2024-10-22 | 1,734 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-10-09 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 53% | 47% | Harris+6.0 |
SurveyUSA | 2024-09-26 | 646 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
Rasmussen Reports (R)GOLD | 2024-09-22 | 993 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-18 | 517 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 43% | Harris+7.0 |
Mason-Dixon | 2024-09-18 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-08 | 501 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 44% | Harris+7.0 |
Embold Research/MinnPost | 2024-09-08 | 1,616 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
SurveyUSA | 2024-08-29 | 635 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
SurveyUSA | 2024-07-25 | 656 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 40% | Harris+10.0 |
Fox News | 2024-07-24 | 1,071 | RV | ×1.00 | 52% | 46% | Harris+6.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE