2024 Presidential Election · North Carolina · Archive
North Carolina
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×248 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS47.4%
MODEL — TRUMP49.3%
MODEL MARGINTrump+1.9
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+3.2
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
47.4%
Actual: 47.8% · Off by 0.4pts
Trump (Model)
49.3%
Actual: 51.0% · Off by 1.7pts
Model Margin
Trump+1.9
Actual: Trump+3.2 · Miss: 1.3pts
Polls Included
48
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 North Carolina Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
47.4% → 47.8%
Off by 0.4 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
49.3% → 51.0%
Off by 1.7 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+1.9 → Trump+3.2
Avg candidate miss: 1.1pts · Margin miss: 1.3pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | 2024-11-05 | 1,600 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 1,219 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 50% | Trump+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 1,010 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 1,310 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-31 | 949 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 1,123 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Big Data Poll | 2024-10-31 | 1,157 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 51% | Trump+4.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 1,373 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 51% | Trump+4.0 |
East Carolina University | 2024-10-29 | 1,250 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 50% | Trump+2.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 1,665 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-10-28 | 750 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
FOX News | 2024-10-28 | 872 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-27 | 770 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-10-23 | 650 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 47% | Trump+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-22 | 679 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 702 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 49% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-18 | 843 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 48% | Trump+3.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 1,674 | LV | ×2.00 | 50% | 49% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-14 | 620 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-14 | 1,031 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Cygnal | 2024-10-14 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 46% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-02 | 753 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 47% | Trump+2.0 |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 401 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-29 | 953 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
East Carolina University | 2024-09-26 | 1,005 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 411 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 828 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-09-25 | 931 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-25 | 1,173 | LV | ×2.00 | 51% | 47% | Harris+4.0 |
FOX News | 2024-09-24 | 787 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-09-21 | 682 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 47% | Trump+2.0 |
Meredith College | 2024-09-20 | 802 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-19 | 868 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Fabrizio/Anzalone | 2024-09-17 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
Cygnal | 2024-09-16 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 46% | Trump+1.0 |
AmGreatness/TIPP | 2024-09-13 | 973 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 48% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-09 | 495 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 44% | Harris+1.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-08 | 940 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-28 | 1,071 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 45% | Trump+1.0 |
East Carolina University | 2024-08-28 | 920 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 645 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
FOX News | 2024-08-26 | 999 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-14 | 655 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
Cygnal | 2024-08-05 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 47% | Trump+3.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-08-02 | 403 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 706 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 45% | Trump+1.0 |
PPP | 2024-07-20 | 573 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 48% | Trump+4.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE