2024 Presidential Election · New Hampshire · Archive
New Hampshire
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×217 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS50.2%
MODEL — TRUMP46.0%
MODEL MARGINHarris+4.2
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+-2.8
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
50.2%
Actual: 50.7% · Off by 0.5pts
Trump (Model)
46.0%
Actual: 47.9% · Off by 1.9pts
Model Margin
Harris+4.2
Actual: Harris+2.8 · Miss: 1.4pts
Polls Included
17
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 New Hampshire Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
50.2% → 50.7%
Off by 0.5 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
46.0% → 47.9%
Off by 1.9 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Harris+4.2 → Harris+2.8
Avg candidate miss: 1.2pts · Margin miss: 1.4pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dartmouth College | 2024-11-03 | 587 | LV | ×1.00 | 62% | 34% | Harris+28.0 |
University of New Hampshire | 2024-11-02 | 2,814 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 46% | Harris+5.0 |
Saint Anselm College | 2024-10-29 | 2,791 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 46% | Harris+5.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-10-28 | 901 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Praecones Analytica/NHJournal | 2024-10-26 | 622 | RV | ×1.00 | 50% | 50% | EVEN |
CES/YouGov | 2024-10-25 | 375 | LV | ×1.00 | 52% | 45% | Harris+7.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-10-23 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 43% | Harris+7.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-10-23 | 915 | LV | ×2.00 | 50% | 47% | Harris+3.0 |
Dartmouth College | 2024-10-18 | 2,211 | RV | ×1.00 | 59% | 38% | Harris+21.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-10-10 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 41% | Harris+9.0 |
Saint Anselm College | 2024-10-02 | 2,104 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 44% | Harris+7.0 |
University of New Hampshire | 2024-09-16 | 1,695 | LV | ×1.00 | 54% | 43% | Harris+11.0 |
Saint Anselm College | 2024-09-12 | 2,241 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 43% | Harris+8.0 |
University of New Hampshire | 2024-08-19 | 2,048 | LV | ×1.00 | 52% | 47% | Harris+5.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-07-28 | 1,000 | RV | ×2.00 | 50% | 46% | Harris+4.0 |
University of New Hampshire | 2024-07-25 | 2,875 | LV | ×1.00 | 53% | 46% | Harris+7.0 |
Saint Anselm College | 2024-07-25 | 2,083 | RV | ×1.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE