2024 Presidential Election · New Mexico · Archive
New Mexico
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×212 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS49.3%
MODEL — TRUMP43.8%
MODEL MARGINHarris+5.5
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+-6.0
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
49.3%
Actual: 51.9% · Off by 2.6pts
Trump (Model)
43.8%
Actual: 45.9% · Off by 2.1pts
Model Margin
Harris+5.5
Actual: Harris+6.0 · Miss: 0.5pts
Polls Included
12
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 New Mexico Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
49.3% → 51.9%
Off by 2.6 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
43.8% → 45.9%
Off by 2.1 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Harris+5.5 → Harris+6.0
Avg candidate miss: 2.4pts · Margin miss: 0.5pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Insights | 2024-11-03 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 45% | Harris+4.9 |
KOB-TV/SurveyUSA | 2024-10-31 | 632 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-10-26 | 749 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 44% | Harris+5.0 |
Albuquerque Journal | 2024-10-18 | 1,024 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 41% | Harris+9.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-14 | 382 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-09-22 | 708 | LV | ×2.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
KOB-TV/SurveyUSA | 2024-09-18 | 619 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 42% | Harris+8.0 |
Albuquerque Journal | 2024-09-13 | 532 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 39% | Harris+10.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-09 | 521 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 44% | Harris+5.0 |
The Hill/Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-08-22 | 965 | RV | ×2.00 | 52% | 42% | Harris+10.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-15 | 592 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 41% | Harris+6.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-03 | 493 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 37% | Harris+7.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE