2024 Presidential Election · Nevada · Archive
Nevada
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×256 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS47.1%
MODEL — TRUMP48.9%
MODEL MARGINTrump+1.8
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+3.1
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
47.1%
Actual: 47.6% · Off by 0.5pts
Trump (Model)
48.9%
Actual: 50.7% · Off by 1.8pts
Model Margin
Trump+1.8
Actual: Trump+3.1 · Miss: 1.3pts
Polls Included
56
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Nevada Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
47.1% → 47.6%
Off by 0.5 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
48.9% → 50.7%
Off by 1.8 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+1.8 → Trump+3.1
Avg candidate miss: 1.2pts · Margin miss: 1.3pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | 2024-11-05 | 1,125 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 707 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-03 | 611 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 50% | Trump+8.0 |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 840 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 1,010 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 782 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 52% | Trump+6.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-31 | 773 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 690 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 700 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
SusquehannaGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 400 | LV | ×2.00 | 44% | 50% | Trump+6.0 |
Noble Predictive Insights | 2024-10-31 | 593 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
Data for ProgressD | 2024-10-30 | 721 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-30 | 845 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 51% | Trump+4.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 1,083 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-28 | 1,082 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-10-28 | 767 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-27 | 531 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-10-26 | 683 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-22 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-22 | 540 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 47% | Trump+1.0 |
InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-21 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 420 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-18 | 529 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 47% | Trump+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 1,171 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Fabrizio/Anzalone | 2024-10-15 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 49% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-14 | 838 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-10-14 | 748 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-13 | 1,088 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 43% | 49% | Trump+6.0 |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-10-08 | 900 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-02 | 514 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
InsiderAdvantage | 2024-09-30 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 407 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 409 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
AmGreatness/TIPP | 2024-09-25 | 736 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 49% | Harris+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 516 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-25 | 858 | LV | ×2.00 | 51% | 48% | Harris+3.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-09-22 | 738 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
Remington Research | 2024-09-20 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-19 | 652 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 45% | EVEN |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-09-18 | 895 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Noble Predictive Insights | 2024-09-16 | 692 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Trafalgar Group | 2024-09-13 | 1,079 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 44% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-09 | 698 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 46% | Trump+1.0 |
InsiderAdvantage | 2024-08-31 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-08-29 | 626 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-28 | 490 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-08-28 | 1,168 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
FOX News | 2024-08-26 | 1,026 | RV | ×1.00 | 48% | 50% | Trump+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 416 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-08-19 | 980 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-15 | 677 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Trafalgar Group | 2024-08-08 | 1,000 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 48% | Trump+3.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-08-02 | 403 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 48% | Trump+3.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 450 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 45% | Harris+2.0 |
InsiderAdvantage | 2024-07-16 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 40% | 50% | Trump+10.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE