2024 Presidential Election · Florida · Archive
Florida
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×227 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS44.9%
MODEL — TRUMP51.3%
MODEL MARGINTrump+6.4
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+13.1
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
44.9%
Actual: 43.0% · Off by 1.9pts
Trump (Model)
51.3%
Actual: 56.1% · Off by 4.8pts
Model Margin
Trump+6.4
Actual: Trump+13.1 · Miss: 6.7pts
Polls Included
27
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Florida Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
44.9% → 43.0%
Off by 1.9 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
51.3% → 56.1%
Off by 4.8 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+6.4 → Trump+13.1
Avg candidate miss: 3.4pts · Margin miss: 6.7pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | 2024-11-03 | 450 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 51% | Trump+7.0 |
Victory Insights | 2024-11-02 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 51% | Trump+4.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-11-01 | 2,022 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
Stetson University | 2024-11-01 | 452 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 53% | Trump+7.0 |
Florida Atlantic University | 2024-10-27 | 897 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 53% | Trump+9.0 |
St. Pete Polls | 2024-10-25 | 1,227 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 50% | Trump+5.0 |
Hunt Research | 2024-10-22 | 1,234 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 50% | Trump+5.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-10-20 | 860 | LV | ×2.00 | 44% | 52% | Trump+8.0 |
University of North Florida | 2024-10-18 | 977 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 53% | Trump+10.0 |
Rose Institute/YouGov | 2024-10-17 | 1,076 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
RMG Research | 2024-10-17 | 788 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 52% | Trump+7.0 |
The Terrance Group | 2024-10-08 | 818 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 51% | Trump+7.0 |
Marist College | 2024-10-07 | 1,257 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 51% | Trump+4.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-06 | 622 | LV | ×1.00 | 41% | 55% | Trump+14.0 |
Mason-Dixon | 2024-10-04 | 625 | RV | ×1.00 | 43% | 49% | Trump+6.0 |
RMG Research | 2024-09-27 | 774 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
Public Policy Polling | 2024-09-26 | 800 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 50% | Trump+4.0 |
Victory Insights | 2024-09-25 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 47% | Trump+2.0 |
McLaughlin & Associates | 2024-09-25 | 1,200 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
The Bullfinch Group | 2024-09-23 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-18 | 2,948 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-08 | 3,182 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-09-05 | 815 | LV | ×2.00 | 45% | 50% | Trump+5.0 |
Public Policy Polling | 2024-08-22 | 837 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 51% | Trump+4.0 |
Florida Atlantic University | 2024-08-11 | 1,040 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
University of North Florida | 2024-07-27 | 774 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 49% | Trump+7.0 |
InsiderAdvantage | 2024-07-16 | 800 | RV | ×1.00 | 39% | 49% | Trump+10.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE