2024 Presidential Election · Pennsylvania · Archive
Pennsylvania
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×242 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS47.6%
MODEL — TRUMP48.7%
MODEL MARGINTrump+1.1
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+1.9
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
47.6%
Actual: 48.4% · Off by 0.8pts
Trump (Model)
48.7%
Actual: 50.3% · Off by 1.6pts
Model Margin
Trump+1.1
Actual: Trump+1.9 · Miss: 0.8pts
Polls Included
42
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Pennsylvania Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
47.6% → 48.4%
Off by 0.8 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
48.7% → 50.3%
Off by 1.6 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+1.1 → Trump+1.9
Avg candidate miss: 1.2pts · Margin miss: 0.8pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 1,840 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 1,527 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 2,049 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
Data for ProgressD | 2024-10-30 | 908 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 48% | Harris+2.0 |
Echelon Insights | 2024-10-30 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-30 | 1,738 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-10-30 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 49% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 1,299 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 49% | Trump+2.0 |
FOX News | 2024-10-28 | 1,057 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 866 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 2,048 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 50% | Trump+3.0 |
Big Data Poll | 2024-10-16 | 1,200 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 52% | Trump+4.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-10 | 857 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-10-09 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
AmGreatness/TIPP | 2024-10-09 | 803 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-07 | 1,412 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 408 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 474 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 993 | RV | ×1.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-09-25 | 1,775 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 51% | Trump+3.0 |
Fabrizio Ward/AnzaloneGOLD | 2024-09-24 | 600 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
FOX News | 2024-09-24 | 787 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
UMass Lowell | 2024-09-19 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-09-16 | 1,082 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-16 | 1,331 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 45% | Harris+6.0 |
Washington PostGOLD | 2024-09-16 | 1,003 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Franklin & Marshall | 2024-09-15 | 890 | RV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-09-14 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
CNN | 2024-08-29 | 789 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 803 | RV | ×1.00 | 51% | 45% | Harris+6.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-08-17 | 1,312 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
EmersonGOLD | 2024-08-14 | 1,000 | LV | ×2.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-08-12 | 1,738 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
Franklin & Marshall | 2024-08-11 | 920 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 43% | Harris+3.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-08 | 693 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 44% | Harris+2.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-08-02 | 411 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
SusquehannaGOLD | 2024-07-28 | 600 | LV | ×2.00 | 43% | 47% | Trump+4.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 804 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 46% | Trump+2.0 |
FOX News | 2024-07-24 | 1,034 | RV | ×1.00 | 43% | 45% | Trump+2.0 |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-07-23 | 850 | RV | ×2.00 | 44% | 46% | Trump+2.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-07-12 | 872 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 43% | Trump+1.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE