2024 Presidential Election · Texas · Archive
Texas
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×250 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS44.2%
MODEL — TRUMP52.0%
MODEL MARGINTrump+7.8
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+13.6
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
44.2%
Actual: 42.5% · Off by 1.7pts
Trump (Model)
52.0%
Actual: 56.1% · Off by 4.1pts
Model Margin
Trump+7.8
Actual: Trump+13.6 · Miss: 5.8pts
Polls Included
50
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Texas Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
44.2% → 42.5%
Off by 1.7 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
52.0% → 56.1%
Off by 4.1 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+7.8 → Trump+13.6
Avg candidate miss: 2.9pts · Margin miss: 5.8pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 2,434 | LV | ×2.00 | 44% | 55% | Trump+11.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-10-31 | 2,120 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 52% | Trump+7.0 |
Cygnal | 2024-10-28 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 51% | Trump+8.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-10-27 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 55% | Trump+10.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-26 | 1,180 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 52% | Trump+10.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-26 | 1,180 | LV | ×1.00 | 42% | 52% | Trump+10.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-10-25 | 1,002 | LV | ×2.00 | 44% | 50% | Trump+6.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-10-25 | 1,002 | LV | ×2.00 | 44% | 50% | Trump+6.0 |
UT Tyler | 2024-10-21 | 956 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
UT Tyler | 2024-10-21 | 956 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-10-21 | 815 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 53% | Trump+7.0 |
Rose Institute/YouGov | 2024-10-17 | 1,075 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-10-16 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 56% | Trump+12.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-10-15 | 2,048 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 50% | Trump+4.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-10-15 | 2,048 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 50% | Trump+4.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-10 | 1,091 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
University of Houston | 2024-10-10 | 1,329 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
University of Texas | 2024-10-10 | 1,075 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-10 | 1,091 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
Marist College | 2024-10-07 | 1,186 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 53% | Trump+7.0 |
Florida Atlantic University | 2024-10-06 | 775 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 50% | Trump+5.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-10-06 | 617 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 50% | Trump+6.0 |
Florida Atlantic University | 2024-10-06 | 775 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 50% | Trump+5.0 |
CWS Research | 2024-10-04 | 533 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 48% | Trump+5.0 |
CWS Research | 2024-10-04 | 533 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 48% | Trump+5.0 |
RMG Research | 2024-09-27 | 779 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 51% | Trump+6.0 |
RMG Research | 2024-09-27 | 779 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 51% | Trump+6.0 |
PPP | 2024-09-26 | 759 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
Public Policy Polling | 2024-09-26 | 759 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-09-24 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 54% | Trump+8.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-09-24 | 950 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 51% | Trump+5.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-18 | 2,716 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 50% | Trump+4.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-18 | 2,716 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 50% | Trump+4.0 |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | 2024-09-18 | 1,200 | LV | ×1.00 | 44% | 50% | Trump+6.0 |
CWS Research | 2024-09-09 | 504 | LV | ×1.00 | 41% | 51% | Trump+10.0 |
CWS Research | 2024-09-09 | 504 | LV | ×1.00 | 41% | 51% | Trump+10.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-08 | 2,940 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 52% | Trump+9.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-08 | 2,940 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 52% | Trump+9.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-09-05 | 845 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 50% | Trump+4.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-08-31 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 55% | Trump+9.0 |
YouGov | 2024-08-31 | 1,200 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 49% | Trump+5.0 |
University of Texas | 2024-08-31 | 1,200 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 49% | Trump+5.0 |
YouGov | 2024-08-31 | 1,200 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 49% | Trump+5.0 |
Quantus Insights | 2024-08-30 | 1,000 | RV | ×1.00 | 42% | 49% | Trump+7.0 |
Texas Public Opinion Research | 2024-08-29 | 800 | RV | ×1.00 | 43% | 51% | Trump+8.0 |
Texas Public Opinion Research | 2024-08-29 | 800 | RV | ×1.00 | 43% | 51% | Trump+8.0 |
PPP | 2024-08-22 | 725 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 49% | Trump+5.0 |
Public Policy Polling | 2024-08-22 | 725 | RV | ×1.00 | 44% | 49% | Trump+5.0 |
University of Houston | 2024-08-16 | 1,365 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 50% | Trump+5.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-08-13 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 53% | Trump+6.0 |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE