2024 Presidential Election · Virginia · Archive
Virginia
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×226 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS50.2%
MODEL — TRUMP45.5%
MODEL MARGINHarris+4.7
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+-5.7
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
50.2%
Actual: 51.8% · Off by 1.6pts
Trump (Model)
45.5%
Actual: 46.1% · Off by 0.6pts
Model Margin
Harris+4.7
Actual: Harris+5.7 · Miss: 1.0pts
Polls Included
26
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Virginia Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
50.2% → 51.8%
Off by 1.6 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
45.5% → 46.1%
Off by 0.6 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Harris+4.7 → Harris+5.7
Avg candidate miss: 1.1pts · Margin miss: 1.0pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 2,202 | LV | ×2.00 | 51% | 46% | Harris+5.0 |
Research Co. | 2024-11-03 | 450 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 45% | Harris+6.0 |
Roanoke College | 2024-10-29 | 859 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 41% | Harris+10.0 |
Cygnal (R) | 2024-10-29 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 43% | Harris+7.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-10-28 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 54% | 46% | Harris+8.0 |
CES/YouGov | 2024-10-25 | 2,015 | LV | ×1.00 | 53% | 44% | Harris+9.0 |
Rasmussen Reports (R)GOLD | 2024-10-25 | 1,014 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
Quantus Insights (R) | 2024-10-24 | 725 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 48% | Harris+1.0 |
Braun Research | 2024-10-23 | 1,004 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 43% | Harris+6.0 |
Christopher Newport University | 2024-10-04 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 52% | 41% | Harris+11.0 |
VCU | 2024-09-25 | 762 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 37% | Harris+10.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-09-24 | 860 | LV | ×2.00 | 52% | 44% | Harris+8.0 |
Rasmussen Reports (R)GOLD | 2024-09-22 | 1,144 | LV | ×2.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-18 | 899 | LV | ×1.00 | 51% | 44% | Harris+7.0 |
ActiVote | 2024-09-17 | 400 | LV | ×1.00 | 55% | 45% | Harris+10.0 |
Research America Inc. | 2024-09-09 | 756 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
Morning Consult | 2024-09-08 | 873 | LV | ×1.00 | 52% | 42% | Harris+10.0 |
Washington Post/Schar SchoolGOLD | 2024-09-08 | 1,005 | LV | ×2.00 | 51% | 43% | Harris+8.0 |
VCU | 2024-09-06 | 749 | RV | ×1.00 | 49% | 36% | Harris+13.0 |
Quantus Insights (R) | 2024-08-22 | 629 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
Roanoke College | 2024-08-16 | 691 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 44% | Harris+3.0 |
Mainstreet Research/FAU | 2024-07-15 | 265 | LV | ×1.00 | 43% | 47% | Trump+4.0 |
Emerson CollegeGOLD | 2024-07-15 | 1,000 | RV | ×2.00 | 45% | 47% | Trump+2.0 |
Mainstreet Research/FAU | 2024-07-13 | 544 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 42% | Harris+4.0 |
NY Times/Siena College | 2024-07-12 | 661 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 44% | Harris+5.0 |
SoCal Strategies (R) | 2024-07-11 | 1,000 | RV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE