2024 Presidential Election · Wisconsin · Archive
Wisconsin
2024 Presidential
Polling Average
Weighted daily average — Trump vs. Harris — from July through Election Day. Recency decay, √n sample adjustment, LV/RV/A screen, Gold Standard upweighting. Frozen at close of polls November 5, 2024.
✓ RACE CALLEDNOV 5, 2024★ GOLD STANDARD ×244 POLLS IN MODELRECENCY · √N · LV/RV/A
MODEL — HARRIS47.6%
MODEL — TRUMP47.8%
MODEL MARGINTrump+0.2
ACTUAL RESULTTrump+0.9
FINAL MODEL AVERAGES
Harris (Model)
47.6%
Actual: 48.5% · Off by 0.9pts
Trump (Model)
47.8%
Actual: 49.4% · Off by 1.6pts
Model Margin
Trump+0.2
Actual: Trump+0.9 · Miss: 0.7pts
Polls Included
44
In final model
TRENDLINE
2024 Wisconsin Presidential polling average
Trump & Harris trendlines — hover to view daily values
HOVER FOR VALUES
TrumpHarris
MODEL ACCURACY REPORTNOV 5, 2024 RESULT ON FILE
Harris — Model vs. Actual
47.6% → 48.5%
Off by 0.9 points
Trump — Model vs. Actual
47.8% → 49.4%
Off by 1.6 points
Margin — Model vs. Actual
Trump+0.2 → Trump+0.9
Avg candidate miss: 1.3pts · Margin miss: 0.7pts
ALL INCLUDED POLLS
★ GOLD STANDARD = ×2 WEIGHTSORTED BY END DATE ↓
| POLLSTER | END DATE | N | TYPE | WEIGHT | HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | 2024-11-05 | 1,549 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-04 | 869 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-11-02 | 736 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 51% | Trump+6.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-11-02 | 1,305 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 45% | Harris+3.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-11-02 | 728 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
YouGov | 2024-10-31 | 876 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 45% | Harris+4.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-31 | 932 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-31 | 673 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Echelon Insights | 2024-10-30 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-29 | 1,470 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-27 | 746 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Marquette Law School | 2024-10-24 | 753 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
USA Today/Suffolk | 2024-10-23 | 500 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-22 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 48% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-22 | 557 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 47% | Harris+2.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-21 | 1,136 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-10-20 | 624 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-18 | 622 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 46% | Harris+1.0 |
AtlasIntelGOLD | 2024-10-17 | 932 | LV | ×2.00 | 48% | 49% | Trump+1.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-14 | 641 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Wall Street Journal | 2024-10-08 | 600 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 46% | Trump+1.0 |
Quinnipiac | 2024-10-07 | 1,073 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-02 | 533 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 46% | Harris+1.0 |
GSG/NSOR | 2024-09-29 | 408 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 46% | Trump+1.0 |
Marquette Law School | 2024-09-26 | 798 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 43% | Harris+3.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-09-26 | 680 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 46% | Harris+2.0 |
Cook Political Report | 2024-09-25 | 411 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 48% | Trump+2.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-09-25 | 785 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 47% | Harris+3.0 |
Remington Research | 2024-09-20 | 800 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 48% | EVEN |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-19 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN |
Quinnipiac | 2024-09-16 | 1,075 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 47% | Harris+1.0 |
Fabrizio/Anzalone | 2024-09-14 | 600 | LV | ×1.00 | 45% | 48% | Trump+3.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-09-09 | 626 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 46% | Harris+3.0 |
Marquette Law School | 2024-09-05 | 738 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 43% | Harris+5.0 |
CNN/SSRS | 2024-08-29 | 976 | LV | ×1.00 | 50% | 44% | Harris+6.0 |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-08-28 | 672 | LV | ×1.00 | 48% | 44% | Harris+4.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-08-26 | 648 | LV | ×1.00 | 52% | 44% | Harris+8.0 |
Rasmussen ReportsGOLD | 2024-08-19 | 1,099 | LV | ×2.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
AmGreatness/TIPP | 2024-08-14 | 976 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 46% | Trump+1.0 |
NY Times/Siena | 2024-08-08 | 661 | LV | ×1.00 | 49% | 43% | Harris+6.0 |
Marquette Law School | 2024-08-01 | 801 | LV | ×1.00 | 46% | 45% | Harris+1.0 |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 2024-07-28 | 700 | RV | ×1.00 | 45% | 44% | Harris+1.0 |
FOX News | 2024-07-24 | 1,046 | RV | ×1.00 | 46% | 46% | EVEN |
The Hill/EmersonGOLD | 2024-07-23 | 845 | RV | ×2.00 | 45% | 45% | EVEN |
Frozen Nov 5, 2024 · Recency decay · √n · LV/RV/A screen · Gold Standard ×2PSI · ACCURACY ON FILE